Same Budget, Two Models: SaRCiSP and Green City Kigali
Green City Kigali concentrates capital in one corridor of about 600 hectares. SaRCiSP spreads the same amount across a nationwide portfolio of interventions, from dryland restoration to community hubs. The analysis compares the two on six criteria, from spatial reach to what remains after ten years.
On these criteria the distributed model covers about 94,500 restored hectares against 600, and it creates direct livelihoods for about 372,000 people. It also builds about 2,000 local decision hubs, where the corridor has one central office.
The analysis states where it leans. It prices Green City Kigali at its original USD 1.5 billion estimate, not the revised USD 4–5 billion. Its six criteria favour a distributed model, and none of them measures land value or tax-base growth, where a concentrated development would do better. The flood avoided-loss figure for SaRCiSP rests on an external benchmark that its own source calls illustrative.